Recently I have been hearing and reading a lot of discussion about the Rangers outgoing class of forwards versus the incoming class of forwards. Basically, the usual discussion board fodder such as: "Not everything shows up in the stats. He puts up numbers but he has no heart. He's a bad locker room presence." Look, I'll trade you my 25 points a year player with a heart of gold for your 70 point a year locker room cancer every opportunity I get.
After browsing through these philosophical arguments I combined the stats of the outgoing Ranger forwards (Jagr, Straka, Shanahan, Avery) and combined the stats of the incoming Ranger forwards (Rissmiller, Voros, Naslund, and Zherdev.) Now I know that Rissmiller and Voros are not meant to replace the offensive production of the four outgoing forwards. Just bear with me for a second:
Outgoing Forwards:
Jagr- 71 pts - 25 goals (82 gms played)
Avery- 33 pts - 15 goals (57 gms played)
Shanahan- 46 pts - 23 goals ( 73 gms played)
Straka - 41 pts - 14 goals(65 gms played)
Incoming Forwards:
Zherdev- 61 pts - 26 goals (82 gms played)
Naslund- 55 pts - 25 goals (82 gms played)
Voros-14 pts - 7 goals (55 gms played)
Rissmiller- 17 pts - 8 goals (79 gms played)
Outgoing rangers combined for 191 points and 77 goals in 277 collective games played
Incoming rangers combined for 147 points and 66 goals in 298 collective games played
Let's analyze these stats for a second. The outgoing Rangers put up 44 more points of production than the incoming Rangers while playing in 21 less games. On the surface, this might seem like ample reason to panic and buy an Omsk jersey. However, take into account that the Ranger forward production was contingent upon each other. They all played for the same team, a team that won 42 games and put up 213 goals throughout the season. The Rangers had 97 points in the standings. Now let's analyze the context that the new Rangers must be gauged by.
Nikolai Zherdev is coming from a team (CBJ) that won 34 games and scored 193 goals. They accumulated 80 points in the standings.
Markus Naslund is coming from a team (VAN) that won 39 games and scored 213 goals. They had 88 points in the standings.
Pat Rissmiller played for a great San Jose team that won 49 games and scored 222 goals. They had 108 points in the standings.
Aaron Voros played for the Minnesota Wild that won 44 games and scored 223 goals.
From this we can conclude that Zherdev, as the main offensive threat on a relatively weak team still put up solid offensive numbers. Naslund, on a team that scored the same amount of goals as the Rangers, also put up solid offensive numbers. Rissmiller and Voros, playing for much better offensive teams were largely relegated to secondary checking roles.
Now to games played. The outgoing Rangers played significantly less games than the incoming ones. This stat could be swayed even further if we decided to count the fact that Voros played 12 games in the AHL before getting called up to Minnesota for 55. The incoming core of Rangers is simply more durable. Avery's style of play makes him prone to injuries. Shanahan missed less time than Straka and Avery but apparently never fully healed. After browsing through Straka's career numbers he actually has a surprising history of fragility. This can also be partially attributed to his style of play.
You can interpret these stats anyway you want. However, I believe it is important to substitute Dawes' numbers for either Voros or Rissmiller since Dawes is a more likely candidate to consume the minutes left behind by the outgoing Ranger forwards. Dawes had 29 pts, 14 goals, in 61 games. The other amount ice time eater is a wild card. Callahan or Prucha seem to be reasonable candidates to make the Rangers top 6 forward corps. I, however, do not feel as safe with them eating up major minutes as I do with Dawes and still believe that one more solid winger is necessary.
Once again, you can interpret these stats anyway you want. I find them to be rather comforting. We have brought in four players who have proved that they are not prone to injuries and removed three players who have had recent injury trouble. I expect Naslund and Zherdev, who each contributed solidly on a decent and a bad team respectively, last season, to either maintain those stats or improve upon them. Dawes, with more ice time (especially power play time) and more games played will almost certainly improve. May Petr Prucha strike me down if he regresses. Add to this the undeniable fact that our defensive puckhandling capabilities have improved, thus improving our power play, and I believe this team is actually in much better shape than when I first reacted to these new signings.
Individual talent and big name recognition may have gone down. However, we now have a group of very steady and dependable players replacing rather injury prone vets whose aching bones could only get worse. It is far too early to assess "chemistry" and "style changes" despite the huge temptation it is. Prior to last season we all thought the Rangers would be offensive juggernauts who struggled to prevent goals. We were wrong. As for me, I'm going to check out what the real estate market in Omsk is like, just in case...
